Effect of socio-economic variables on unemployment in South Africa: a vector error correction model.

Abstract

Using time series data covering the years 1980 to 2020, this study examines the effects of government spending, population growth, and economic expansion on unemployment in the context of South Africa. The study’s variables include government spending, population growth, and economic growth as independent factors, and unemployment as the dependent variable. To ascertain the study’s outcomes, basic descriptive statistics, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the Johansen Cointegration Procedures, the Augmented Dicky-Fuller Test (ADF), and diagnostic tests were used. Since all the variables are stationary at the first difference, the ADF results show that there isn’t a unit root issue. According to the Johansen cointegration estimation, there is a long-term relationship amongst the variables. Hence the choice of VECM to estimate the outcomes. Our results suggests that a rise in government spending will result in a rise in South Africa’s unemployment rate. The findings also suggest that there is a negative correlation between unemployment and population growth. This implies that as the overall population grows, unemployment will decline. Additionally, the findings suggest that unemployment and economic growth in South Africa are positively correlated. This contradicts a number of economic theories, including Keynesian and Okuns Law, which hold that unemployment and economic growth are inversely correlated.